The defeat of Nazi Germany by the Allies marked a significant event in history. However, had prediction markets existed in 1939, the likelihood of Hitler's success would have been higher. The Allies were trailing behind in what Winston Churchill called the “secret war.” It was all about the competition to create more powerful weapons.

Although Nazi Germany had a technological advantage, Vannevar Bush's innovative engineering approach brought about a significant transformation. It resulted in a remarkable change in fortunes.

As a volunteer military scientist, Vannevar Bush learned valuable lessons about effective wartime strategies quite early. During World War I, he introduced an inventive idea for a magnetic device to detect submarines. Unfortunately, the Navy rejected the idea. This marked the beginning of ongoing budget cuts for military technology research. Bush learned that merely proposing new ideas wasn't sufficient for wartime success. Convincing military officers to embrace unconventional ideas was tough. Since they were skeptical of civilian scientists. Victory required trust, respect, and blending military and scientific skills.

Before World War II, a challenge faced by the US military was its tendency to reuse tactics and weapons. Meanwhile, Germany leveraged science to develop advanced arms. Bahcall terms this the "franchise phase," essentially repeating the same actions. To overcome the Nazis, using the "loonshot phase" was crucial. A loonshot denotes a wildly unconventional idea, often ridiculed.

Normally, blending these two phases is difficult, but 1938 was exceptional. The US military had to combine the established method of producing resources with a radical adoption of new technologies. The solution was a novel structure integrating both phases rather than altering the military culture.

Facilitating the growth of unconventional ideas, or loonshots, involves segregating the "artists" (innovators) from the "soldiers" (conventional workers). Artists generate high-risk concepts often dismissed by soldiers. Without safeguarding these initial ideas, soldiers can quash them. Achieving phase separation necessitates distinct structures for each group. It also includes physical distance between the creative team and the more rigid one.

Keeping a balance in a company means understanding and valuing both the regular workers and the creative thinkers. When Steve Jobs was in charge of Apple, he leaned more towards supporting creative thinkers. As a result, it caused the commercial failure of the Mac launch, leading to money troubles and Jobs getting fired. For the different groups to work together, they must share their ideas openly. The team gives each other feedback and has strong support from the bosses.